Top Set in SB versus Capped Ranges on Wet Board

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Top Set in SB versus Capped Ranges on Wet Board

By mark smith

  • Blinds: $1.00/$2.00
  • BTN forhelviti ($220.29) 110bb
  • SB Blanck33 ($1767.62) 884bb
  • BB irishbag ($103.00) 52bb
  • UTG Newfish109 ($911.92) 456bb (Villain)
  • MP slavOuchka ($392.31) 196bb
  • CO matanzas1 ($197.00) 99bb (Hero)Qd 2d Qh Ts
  • P ($3.00, 6 players)
  • Newfish109 raises to $6.00, slavOuchka folds, matanzas1 calls $6.00, forhelviti calls $6.00, Blanck33 calls $5.00, irishbag folds
  • F ($26.00, 4 players) Qs 7c 8s
  • Blanck33 checks, Newfish109 bets $10.00

What are your thoughts on the optimal play here given the dynamics in the hand? Do we always want to pot, or raise small to encourage weaker combo draws to stay in.

A) Weak C-bet from original raiser

B) 0% chance he has AAss according to Range Distribution

C) Limp and calls from other two players

D) Number of bad turn cards for our hand

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  • Profile photo of Nikolaj Nikolaj

    A) I prefer potting when it is unlikely that I have a XF range. In this MW pot on very drawy board (and potentially many callers) I think potting is fine.

    B) He has around 9% chance of having aces here. The reason there are no AA according to RD is that you have put 77+ in range a and have accumulative range on. This means that a hand can’t be in more than one range and all AA hands are in 77+.

    C) Not sure what you mean but don’t see any advantage in giving players behind you a good price to stay in here. One reason could be to balance you calling range here so we can have a wide uncapped calling range – which I assume we’d like to have in this spot, but I still prefer raising here.

    D) It’s abit hard to say since ranges a very wide at this stage but according to EQ Graph the distribution there are 15 turn cards that don’t give you enough EQ to get it in on the turn vs. their current ranges. But obviously ranges change when they call so probably number of bad turn cards goes down with more callers.



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